Hotter, Drier Conditions May Allow Spongy Moths to Thrive, Study Shows
A new study predicts that climate change will contribute to the spread of the invasive spongy moth, Lymantria dispar, by limiting the growth of a fungus that naturally controls its population. Research conducted by the University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory suggests that hotter, drier conditions in North America will reduce the effectiveness of the fungus Entomophaga maimaiga, which has been crucial in controlling the moth's destructive impact on forests.
Published in Nature Climate Change, the research highlights the importance of considering multiple species interactions when predicting the effects of climate change, as small changes in one organism can lead to significant ecological disruptions.
Greg Dwyer, PhD, Professor of Ecology and Evolution at the University of Chicago and senior author of the study, explained that most climate change studies focus on individual species, but understanding their interactions is crucial. "Even small climate changes can have big effects across species, and computer models are essential for understanding these impacts," Dwyer said.
The spongy moth, native to Europe, was first introduced to New England in 1869. The moths, especially their larvae, feed on the leaves of trees, causing significant damage to forests. However, in 1989, a fungal infection began to spread among the moths, reducing their population and preventing further damage. This fungus, although not native to North America, has been successful in curbing the moth's numbers.
While another pathogen, the nucleopolyhedrovirus (NPV), can also control the moths, it requires larger populations to be effective. The fungus, however, is more effective in smaller populations and cooler, wetter conditions, which are increasingly rare as climate change progresses.
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"Even small reductions in mortality rates for the moths can lead to substantial increases in defoliation," Dwyer explained. "If moths survive at low densities one year, they will return at higher densities the next, creating a compounding effect."
In their previous work, Dwyer and his team incorporated climate data into models of the fungus's effectiveness. The new study, in collaboration with atmospheric scientists from Argonne National Laboratory, refined these models by incorporating more localized climate data. The findings were concerning: as temperatures rise and rainfall decreases, fungal infection rates are expected to sharply decline in the coming decades, allowing more moths to survive and further damage forests.
While the worst impacts are predicted for the future, recent years of hotter, drier weather have already led to unexpected outbreaks of spongy moths, signaling that these changes are happening sooner than anticipated.